Looking for the "Why?"
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Interesting. #1 and #2 are what I have hear the most as the reasions.
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I think the south was simply out-manned and out-gunned.
I have read that there were several times where if things had worked out just a little differently the outcome could have been changed. But, of course, that is speculation. You hear the same said about WWII.
But an overwhelming number of assets is always helpful.
Mr. Lincoln certainly thought, more than once, that the Feds could lose.
In the end the North had more Irish than the South, that was the difference.