JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work"
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 14:07 last edited by
It doesn't make any sense that infections would decrease.
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 14:13 last edited by
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
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Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
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They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
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Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
wrote on 22 May 2020, 14:35 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That conclusion is completely different from 'lockdowns don't work'
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Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
wrote on 22 May 2020, 14:46 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 15:24 last edited by
If this pandemic's impact is dependent to some extent on the degree of exposure and a weakened immune system, this would seem to explain nursing home deaths - and two factors enter here - a finite number of nursing home patients and enhanced care now that there is awareness of the problem. As for moving healthier individuals out of lockdown, it may be that at least some people are being more careful with exposure - washing hands and masks. Lockdowns in remote areas may have different outcomes than in urban areas. Finally, a 3-6 week lag might be necessary to more accurate ascertain the impact of re-opening an area.
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@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
wrote on 22 May 2020, 17:22 last edited by@Aqua-Letifer said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
Nursing homes are not allowing visitors to this point. The nursing home workers have already taken it home to their families. Those exposures were already accounted for in the numbers from 8 weeks to 2 weeks ago. Even though it’s highly infectious, we are now being told by the CDC that the risks of contact infection is very low, so not a lot of new infections from there. It’s all about your circle...
My point is that the R drop is not related to opening or not opening states, it’s due to the ultimate drop in these micro communities that have little or nothing to do with whether Floyd’s Barber Shop is open.
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 17:24 last edited by
Warm weather, folks.
We're out of flu season.
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 17:29 last edited by
There’s that as well. Notice most of the states listed being southern states... We do know that Vitamin D has an effect, we know that Florida and Georgia never reached the levels that everybody feared.
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 17:50 last edited by
I agree with the hot weather. I thought from before that there must be some benefit to hot weather.
ALot of the SE Asia countries have done pretty well, even if they have very poor health systems (for example Laos, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, even Thailand). I know that there are other facts involved such as a lower average age population and possible lack of testing, but I would have expected a higher occurances/deaths but has not really been seen. Thailand has gone a couple of days now without any reported cases at all (or reported deaths.)
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@Aqua-Letifer said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
Nursing homes are not allowing visitors to this point. The nursing home workers have already taken it home to their families. Those exposures were already accounted for in the numbers from 8 weeks to 2 weeks ago. Even though it’s highly infectious, we are now being told by the CDC that the risks of contact infection is very low, so not a lot of new infections from there. It’s all about your circle...
My point is that the R drop is not related to opening or not opening states, it’s due to the ultimate drop in these micro communities that have little or nothing to do with whether Floyd’s Barber Shop is open.
wrote on 22 May 2020, 18:00 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@Aqua-Letifer said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
Nursing homes are not allowing visitors to this point. The nursing home workers have already taken it home to their families. Those exposures were already accounted for in the numbers from 8 weeks to 2 weeks ago. Even though it’s highly infectious, we are now being told by the CDC that the risks of contact infection is very low, so not a lot of new infections from there. It’s all about your circle...
My point is that the R drop is not related to opening or not opening states, it’s due to the ultimate drop in these micro communities that have little or nothing to do with whether Floyd’s Barber Shop is open.
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
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@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@Aqua-Letifer said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
Nursing homes are not allowing visitors to this point. The nursing home workers have already taken it home to their families. Those exposures were already accounted for in the numbers from 8 weeks to 2 weeks ago. Even though it’s highly infectious, we are now being told by the CDC that the risks of contact infection is very low, so not a lot of new infections from there. It’s all about your circle...
My point is that the R drop is not related to opening or not opening states, it’s due to the ultimate drop in these micro communities that have little or nothing to do with whether Floyd’s Barber Shop is open.
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
wrote on 22 May 2020, 19:06 last edited by@Loki said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
Minnesota says, "Hold my Beer".
Statewide, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus has killed more than 600 Minnesotans at nursing homes and assisted-living facilities. That is a staggering 81% of the deaths from the pandemic statewide. No other state in the nation that reports such data has such a high percentage of deaths in long-term care, according to an analysis by a Texas-based nonprofit. Nationwide, outbreaks in long-term care facilities have claimed 33,000 lives — more than a third of all deaths nationwide, according to the Associated Press.
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 20:17 last edited by
Maybe the state sent them some blankets.
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@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@Aqua-Letifer said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
Nursing homes are not allowing visitors to this point. The nursing home workers have already taken it home to their families. Those exposures were already accounted for in the numbers from 8 weeks to 2 weeks ago. Even though it’s highly infectious, we are now being told by the CDC that the risks of contact infection is very low, so not a lot of new infections from there. It’s all about your circle...
My point is that the R drop is not related to opening or not opening states, it’s due to the ultimate drop in these micro communities that have little or nothing to do with whether Floyd’s Barber Shop is open.
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
wrote on 22 May 2020, 20:47 last edited by@Loki said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@Aqua-Letifer said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Without delving into the report or article, I can see it.
Close to 50% of the cases in these states have been related to nursing homes, prisons, hospital workers, and first responders. If you can significantly reduce the R in these locations alone, the average will come down. So...
-
Some of these places are testing out at 50% now, there is actually a case that there are micro pockets of herd immunity developing there.
-
They’re getting better at prevention in these environments.
More later...
That doesn't make any sense because nursing home patients and staff have visitors. The staff go back to their families. They go to retail stores, the drive-through, they pick their kids up from school and day-care. This is a very infectious disease. Micro-pockets of herd immunity would only indicate that another wave would be coming.
Nursing homes are not allowing visitors to this point. The nursing home workers have already taken it home to their families. Those exposures were already accounted for in the numbers from 8 weeks to 2 weeks ago. Even though it’s highly infectious, we are now being told by the CDC that the risks of contact infection is very low, so not a lot of new infections from there. It’s all about your circle...
My point is that the R drop is not related to opening or not opening states, it’s due to the ultimate drop in these micro communities that have little or nothing to do with whether Floyd’s Barber Shop is open.
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
And that's part of the problem. You read somewhere... The numbers being given are completely without context, and finding this information is getting harder and harder. Three weeks ago you could at least find some context if you used a little detective work. WaPo publishes that VA numbers went up 347 yesterday, then the next article shows that 174 inmates tested positive yesterday in a growing outbreak at a prison in Roanoke. Then the next article talks about the 76 patients that tested positive yesterday at a Nursing Home in Richmond... Ok, so out of yesterday's case counts I know that 250 if the 347 were coming from those two places... When the next day's case counts show 375, I can probably deduce that a similar number came from those to outbreaks...
Now you can't find any good hard data like that on a local level.
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@Loki said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
Minnesota says, "Hold my Beer".
Statewide, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus has killed more than 600 Minnesotans at nursing homes and assisted-living facilities. That is a staggering 81% of the deaths from the pandemic statewide. No other state in the nation that reports such data has such a high percentage of deaths in long-term care, according to an analysis by a Texas-based nonprofit. Nationwide, outbreaks in long-term care facilities have claimed 33,000 lives — more than a third of all deaths nationwide, according to the Associated Press.
wrote on 22 May 2020, 20:51 last edited by@Improviso said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
33,000 from Nursing Homes?! Damn, we better shut down Chuck E. Cheese!
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 21:45 last edited by
There's never a bad time to shut down Chuck E. Cheese.
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@Improviso said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
33,000 from Nursing Homes?! Damn, we better shut down Chuck E. Cheese!
wrote on 22 May 2020, 21:50 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@Improviso said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
33,000 from Nursing Homes?! Damn, we better shut down Chuck E. Cheese!
Good thing S&W Cafeteria went out of business, huh?
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 21:53 last edited by
Ok... it was a SE USA thing.
They were always filled to the max with seniors. Old people LOVED the place.
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wrote on 22 May 2020, 21:56 last edited by
Over the years I've gone into a lot of nursing homes to give out gifts to the residents. In my experience, the majority of them are awful places, with poorly trained and uncaring staff, sorry assed administrators, poor care, etc. The families of a lit of the residents are just as bad.. dumping off grandma and never coming back to visit, just dividing up her stuff among themselves and leaving her there alone to die.
A lot of nursing home residents are just heartbroken, lonely old people who can't take up for themselves and know that no one gives a shit about them.
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Over the years I've gone into a lot of nursing homes to give out gifts to the residents. In my experience, the majority of them are awful places, with poorly trained and uncaring staff, sorry assed administrators, poor care, etc. The families of a lit of the residents are just as bad.. dumping off grandma and never coming back to visit, just dividing up her stuff among themselves and leaving her there alone to die.
A lot of nursing home residents are just heartbroken, lonely old people who can't take up for themselves and know that no one gives a shit about them.
wrote on 22 May 2020, 22:02 last edited by@Larry said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
Over the years I've gone into a lot of nursing homes to give out gifts to the residents. In my experience, the majority of them are awful places, with poorly trained and uncaring staff, sorry assed administrators, poor care, etc. The families of a lit of the residents are just as bad.. dumping off grandma and never coming back to visit, just dividing up her stuff among themselves and leaving her there alone to die.
A lot of nursing home residents are just heartbroken, lonely old people who can't take up for themselves and know that no one gives a shit about them.
Joe R. Lansdale wrote about that. His novel had a ridiculous premise but he worked in such a facility. That part of it was very true to form.
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@Loki said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
Minnesota says, "Hold my Beer".
Statewide, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus has killed more than 600 Minnesotans at nursing homes and assisted-living facilities. That is a staggering 81% of the deaths from the pandemic statewide. No other state in the nation that reports such data has such a high percentage of deaths in long-term care, according to an analysis by a Texas-based nonprofit. Nationwide, outbreaks in long-term care facilities have claimed 33,000 lives — more than a third of all deaths nationwide, according to the Associated Press.
wrote on 23 May 2020, 00:10 last edited by@Improviso said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
@Loki said in JP Morgan: "Lockdowns don't work":
I read somewhere that2/3 of coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes.
Minnesota says, "Hold my Beer".
Statewide, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus has killed more than 600 Minnesotans at nursing homes and assisted-living facilities. That is a staggering 81% of the deaths from the pandemic statewide. No other state in the nation that reports such data has such a high percentage of deaths in long-term care, according to an analysis by a Texas-based nonprofit. Nationwide, outbreaks in long-term care facilities have claimed 33,000 lives — more than a third of all deaths nationwide, according to the Associated Press.
I keep this sort of data in mind when I read about all the lives that could have been saved if we'd socially distanced a couple weeks earlier.
