Inflation

[LuFins Dad]

Remember the Farm Bureau’s .14 cent 4th of July?

They’re back…

https://www.fb.org/newsroom/farm-bureau-survey-shows-thanksgiving-dinner-cost-up-14

[LuFins Dad]

Our cost for shipping a container of goods is 5 times what it was 14 months ago.

[Jolly]

But...I had supper with a rancher last night. As usual, talk got around to the price of cows, and especially feeder calves. He's making just enough profit to keep his head above water.

The price that ranchers are getting for their beef does not translate into the huge increases in the store.

[George K]

Deal with it, peasant.

[George K]

[Mik]

Let them eat chicken.

[George K]

[George K]

[Mik]

I'm not at all sure how you can compare the US economy, with the enormous technological and worldwide political change, to the late 60's.

[Doctor Phibes]

@mik said in Inflation:

I'm not at all sure how you can compare the US economy, with the enormous technological and worldwide political change, to the late 60's.

There was no Covid back then, either. It's all about Covid at the moment.

[George K]

[George K]

11 months into Lyin' Joe's term, let me ask a question:

Several people have said that POTUS really has little influence over gas prices. Does the same apply to inflation?

What about other countries?

[Jolly]

Well, first we have to consider the inflation of the 70's vs. that of today. We've changed the indicators. Right now, it's looking like inflation will come in a bit over 7% for the calendar year...If we use 70's indicators, that number rises to above 15%.

That may be the worst annual inflation numbers for the U.S., ever.

So, The Resident and his administration want us to put out the inflation fire by throwing gasoline () on it.

I ain't no economist, but I fail to see how increasing the fiat money supply defeats inflation...

[Renauda]

@george-k said in Inflation:

11 months into Lyin' Joe's term, let me ask a question:

Several people have said that POTUS really has little influence over gas prices. Does the same apply to inflation?

What about other countries?

My understanding is that the current inflation trends are being felt throughout the G9 states and beyond. The POTUS is neither the cause nor the arbiter of the eventual outcome. The solution will be found through collective action with all the G9 states and others pulling in the same direction.

[taiwan_girl]

@george-k said in Inflation:

What about other countries?

When compared to history, I dont think inflation (at least in Asia) has increased as much as the US.

One of the things that may be different in the US is the labor situation (which I am baffled as why that is happening). But from what I have read, companies are increasing wages to attract workers. Not really the situation in other countries that I am aware of.

Why are jobs not being filled in the US? It is not like all of a sudden the US population decreased or the number of working age people decreased. I can understand that people stopped working when they were getting the government COVID relief, but that ended a while ago. I kind of think it is like a "slinky" in that all of a sudden, people who have been living on their savings will see them run out, and will start to get back to jobs. But when that will happen??? shrug

[LuFins Dad]

I was talking with a family that just arrived from Singapore two weeks ago. Their take was yes, there was some inflation and some product shortages and shipping problems in Asia, but nothing compared to what they have already witnessed in the US.

[Doctor Phibes]

@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:

Why are jobs not being filled in the US?

Probably not enough immigrants. There are some jobs that Americans just won't do. Middle management in an engineering firm, for example.

And to be honest, who can blame them?

[jon-nyc]

@lufins-dad said in Inflation:

I was talking with a family that just arrived from Singapore two weeks ago. Their take was yes, there was some inflation and some product shortages and shipping problems in Asia, but nothing compared to what they have already witnessed in the US.

Yeah well they make all the stuff there so that makes sense.

[George K]

The Fed Is the Main Inflation Culprit

If price stability is squandered, financial stability is put at risk. If financial stability is lost, the economy is imperiled and the social contract is threatened.

During the past several quarters, U.S. inflation has surged—now running about triple the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The surge in prices is unlikely to reverse on its own. The longer that prices are unstable, the greater the challenge to the conduct of macroeconomic policy. The last thing the country needs is its third major economic upheaval in a decade and a half.

Inflation is a choice. It’s a choice for which the Fed is chiefly responsible. The risk of an inflationary spiral arises when policy makers first dismiss the problem and then cast blame elsewhere. Inflation becomes embedded in the price-formation process when the central bank acts belatedly or with insufficient conviction. To date, the Fed has acted as an enabler.

In congressional testimony recently, Mr. Powell made clear he was surprised and troubled by the medium-term trajectory of inflation. At this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed seems ready to abandon its policy priors.

Achieving a soft economic landing at this late stage is difficult. If the sole task were to drive inflation down, the Fed would immediately taper its asset purchases and start raising rates. But a significant tightening cycle would likely cause market volatility to surge and assets to reprice. The authorities have expressed little concern about financial excesses, bubbles or financial imbalances. Hope they’re right. I expect tension between the Fed’s goals of price stability and financial stability to be in sharper relief in the new year.

Stopping QE altogether—even a few quarters ago—would have kept a lid on inflation and allowed a more measured path of rate increases. The Fed now has fewer degrees of freedom to keep the economy out of harm’s way. If the Fed doesn’t act with due speed and skill, inflation—the most regressive tax of all—will do further harm, particularly to the least well-off. If the central bank lurches into a significant, unexpected rate-rising cycle, the same hardworking Americans will bear the brunt of an economic slowdown.

The economy—and the country—is at a critical juncture. The biggest mistake of all, however, is to underestimate America’s strengths. The U.S. economic and political system often shows less well than it performs. At present, the first obligation of policy makers is to ensure a return to price stability.

Mr. Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, is a distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

[George K]