COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?
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@lufins-dad said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
Guess what’s next?
Gottlieb said, “I think Thanksgiving is still a reasonable base case for the U.S. and that Delta is the last major surge of infection. We’re exiting the pandemic phase of this virus in the United States and entering an endemic phase.”
I don't know how valid this is as a prediction, but what if there's something to it?
@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
but what if there's something to it?
I don't get it. I mean, quite obviously that'd be good. But so what? Why play what-if when there's a mountain of evidence saying this isn't going away?
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@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
but what if there's something to it?
I don't get it. I mean, quite obviously that'd be good. But so what? Why play what-if when there's a mountain of evidence saying this isn't going away?
@aqua-letifer It's a new slant. Not saying it's valid or even worth paying attention to, but it's a different view. That mountain of evidence might just be many sources copying each other, the same information repeated over and over.
Something this vast, when a new voice comes along that doesn't sound completely loony, it's worth giving thought to.
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@aqua-letifer It's a new slant. Not saying it's valid or even worth paying attention to, but it's a different view. That mountain of evidence might just be many sources copying each other, the same information repeated over and over.
Something this vast, when a new voice comes along that doesn't sound completely loony, it's worth giving thought to.
@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
That mountain of evidence might just be many sources copying each other, the same information repeated over and over.
They aren't. But how it works is, if that's your claim, it's on you to provide the evidence for the claim, not for the universe to disprove it.
COVID is not a global medical conspiracy. The studies aren't copypasta.
Please love yourself.
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@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
That mountain of evidence might just be many sources copying each other, the same information repeated over and over.
They aren't. But how it works is, if that's your claim, it's on you to provide the evidence for the claim, not for the universe to disprove it.
COVID is not a global medical conspiracy. The studies aren't copypasta.
@aqua-letifer Okay, fine. Far be it from me to cause anybody to bust a gusset around here.
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@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
That mountain of evidence might just be many sources copying each other, the same information repeated over and over.
They aren't. But how it works is, if that's your claim, it's on you to provide the evidence for the claim, not for the universe to disprove it.
COVID is not a global medical conspiracy. The studies aren't copypasta.
@aqua-letifer said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
They aren't. But how it works is, if that's your claim, it's on you to provide the evidence for the claim, not for the universe to disprove it.
Here's a little more substance for Gottlieb's statement in that article, also from Observer: "The former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic could run its course, at least in the U.S., by Thanksgiving—if there aren’t any more hyper-infectious strains after the Delta variant.
In an interview with CNN on Monday, Scott Gottlieb, who headed the FDA from 2017 to 2019, said the Delta variant may be the last major wave of infection in the U.S. given recent case data.
“We’re going to start to transition from the pandemic phase of this virus, at least here in the U.S., to a more endemic phase where the coronavirus becomes a persistent threat . . . But you’re not seeing levels of infection quite the same way that you’ve seen them in the past year and a half.”
"Gottlieb noted that daily new cases are falling nationwide thanks to sharp declines in southern states where the Delta variant has “really run its course.” “By Thanksgiving, you’ll see cases decline to a level that feels more manageable,” he said.
"Gottlieb’s predictions are consistent with projections by a mathematical model built by a consortium of researchers advising the CDC."According to the latest analysis from the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, released last week, the Delta variant seems to peaking in the U.S. and cases and deaths will likely decline steadily now through the spring without a significant winter surge."
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@aqua-letifer said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
They aren't. But how it works is, if that's your claim, it's on you to provide the evidence for the claim, not for the universe to disprove it.
Here's a little more substance for Gottlieb's statement in that article, also from Observer: "The former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic could run its course, at least in the U.S., by Thanksgiving—if there aren’t any more hyper-infectious strains after the Delta variant.
In an interview with CNN on Monday, Scott Gottlieb, who headed the FDA from 2017 to 2019, said the Delta variant may be the last major wave of infection in the U.S. given recent case data.
“We’re going to start to transition from the pandemic phase of this virus, at least here in the U.S., to a more endemic phase where the coronavirus becomes a persistent threat . . . But you’re not seeing levels of infection quite the same way that you’ve seen them in the past year and a half.”
"Gottlieb noted that daily new cases are falling nationwide thanks to sharp declines in southern states where the Delta variant has “really run its course.” “By Thanksgiving, you’ll see cases decline to a level that feels more manageable,” he said.
"Gottlieb’s predictions are consistent with projections by a mathematical model built by a consortium of researchers advising the CDC."According to the latest analysis from the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, released last week, the Delta variant seems to peaking in the U.S. and cases and deaths will likely decline steadily now through the spring without a significant winter surge."
@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
if there aren’t any more hyper-infectious strains after the Delta variant.
Because that's totally how viruses work.
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@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
if there aren’t any more hyper-infectious strains after the Delta variant.
Because that's totally how viruses work.
@aqua-letifer said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
if there aren’t any more hyper-infectious strains after the Delta variant.
Because that's totally how viruses work.
With time, you would expect a more infectious virus with milder symptoms.
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@aqua-letifer said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
@catseye3 said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
if there aren’t any more hyper-infectious strains after the Delta variant.
Because that's totally how viruses work.
With time, you would expect a more infectious virus with milder symptoms.
@jolly said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
With time,
5+ or so years out, though, right? And also who knows, maybe vaccines are screwing with that.
Please love yourself.
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@aqua-letifer said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
@jolly said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
With time,
5+ or so years out, though, right? And also who knows, maybe vaccines are screwing with that.
Ehhh, from what I’ve read it seems like 2-3 years…
Spanish Flu went 27 months or so…
Hong Kong Flu went from 68-70.
H1N1 from 2009-2010.
Now, that’s if it acts like a respiratory virus…
Polio was a bitch for how many decades?
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@jolly said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
With time,
5+ or so years out, though, right? And also who knows, maybe vaccines are screwing with that.
@aqua-letifer said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
@jolly said in COVID: Is the Worst Behind Us?:
With time,
5+ or so years out, though, right? And also who knows, maybe vaccines are screwing with that.
There's a lot of debate right now about vaccines and whether that's happening.
