On the verge of herd immunity?
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About 83 percent of the U.S. population ages 16 and up has some degree of immunity to the coronavirus from vaccination or prior infection, a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study estimates.
Based on antibody levels in about 1.4 million patients' blood samples, CDC researchers estimated that 20 percent of Americans have immunity from prior infection - though the number varies by age and other demographics. The other 60 per cent have received a shot which confers similar immunity.
Experts previously cited 70 to 80 percent protection as a goal for herd immunity, but now many say we need more vaccinations and boosters to protect against the super-contagious Indian 'Delta' variant.
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@george-k said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
About 83 percent of the U.S. population ages 16 and up has some degree of immunity to the coronavirus from vaccination or prior infection, a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study estimates.
Based on antibody levels in about 1.4 million patients' blood samples, CDC researchers estimated that 20 percent of Americans have immunity from prior infection - though the number varies by age and other demographics. The other 60 per cent have received a shot which confers similar immunity.
Experts previously cited 70 to 80 percent protection as a goal for herd immunity, but now many say we need more vaccinations and boosters to protect against the super-contagious Indian 'Delta' variant.
20% have some immunity from previous infection? That’s twice the number of cases reported in the US. Also, how many of those that received the shot also had previously been infected?
Me/rry/Christmas
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@lufins-dad said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
20% have some immunity from previous infection? That’s twice the number of cases reported in the US.
I would assume there's a large cohort of asymptomatic infected.
Also, how many of those that received the shot also had previously been infected?
I know of at least one (D2)!
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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This study has several limitations. First, while seroprevalence estimates were weighted to account for demographic differences between the sample blood donor population and general population, the blood donor population differed from the general adult US population in measurable demographic variables, while other potential population differences could not be measured.
Second, although the serology assays used appear to have high sensitivity for 6 months after infection,15 estimates were not adjusted to account for a sensitivity less than 100% or potential waning of sensitivity after 6 months.
Third, infection-induced seroprevalence estimates might be underestimated because persons with acute or long-term COVID-19 symptoms might have been excluded from donating.35 However, influenza seroprevalence studies have shown similar influenza infection rates in blood donors and the general population, suggesting SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced seroprevalence might also be similar in blood donors and the general population36; additionally, the infection-induced seroprevalence estimates in this study were similar to those of a nationwide seroprevalence study using commercial laboratory specimen remnants.1,29
Fourth, vaccine-induced seroprevalence might be higher in blood donors than in the general population. For May 2021, among donations from donors with a known vaccine history, 73.3% were from donors who self-reported receiving a previous COVID-19 vaccine, compared with CDC estimates that 57.0% of US adults aged 18 years and older had received 1 dose or more of vaccine by May 2021.37 Blood donors are more likely than the general US population to be employed and have attended college,38 factors potentially associated with increased rates of vaccination and lower rates of infection.39,40
Fifth, the combined and infection-induced seroprevalence estimates might be overestimates because several participating blood collection organizations implemented and advertised SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing for blood donors, potentially attracting donors who were exposed.8 However, the effect of test-seeking donors was likely low given that test seeking would have been more likely among first-time donors, who contributed 13.9% of study specimens.
Sixth, the studywide estimates only represented the geographic areas covered by study regions, which covered an estimated 74% of the US population.
Seventh, the zip code–based study region seroprevalences were compared with county-based cumulative case report rates; counties only partially represented by study region zip codes may have had case report rates that differed between included and excluded zip codes in the study regions.
Eighth, the analysis of infections per reported case is ecological. The seroprevalence estimates and cumulative case reporting data applied to broad geographic areas; the true values likely vary based on local patterns of transmission, testing for COVID-19, and other factors. Therefore, the estimated number of cumulative infections per reported case should be interpreted with caution.
Ninth, children aged younger than 16 years cannot donate blood and were not included in this study.
Tenth, the findings in this analysis predate the surge in SARS-CoV-2 infection in the US related to transmission of the Delta variant.
Despite weighting to adjust for demographic differences, these findings from a national sample of blood donors may not be representative of the entire US population.
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@george-k said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
Two different things - blood donors are a smaller group that might not reflect the general population.
I think it's a fairly safe bet that blood donors are likely to be less averse to having injections and visiting medical facilities than the general population.
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@doctor-phibes said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
@george-k said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
Two different things - blood donors are a smaller group that might not reflect the general population.
I think it's a fairly safe bet that blood donors are likely to be less averse to having injections and visiting medical facilities than the general population.
More virtuous, therefore likely to be politically conservative.
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@doctor-phibes said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
@george-k said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
Two different things - blood donors are a smaller group that might not reflect the general population.
I think it's a fairly safe bet that blood donors are likely to be less averse to having injections and visiting medical facilities than the general population.
Not necessarily. Donations revolve around a lot of factors.
At least in my experience as a blood banker...
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@jolly said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
@doctor-phibes said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
@george-k said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
Two different things - blood donors are a smaller group that might not reflect the general population.
I think it's a fairly safe bet that blood donors are likely to be less averse to having injections and visiting medical facilities than the general population.
Not necessarily. Donations revolve around a lot of factors.
At least in my experience as a blood banker...
Ironically, regular bankers have more blood on their hands than blood bankers.
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Must be all the ivermectin the herd’s been taking.
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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By the way, I don’t mean to be that guy, but if 20% of the population has had COVID, where does that put the CFR in relationship to influenza?
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@mik said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
@larry said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
I don't have a herd any more...
That's what I herd.
Sounds like a lot of bull to me
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@lufins-dad said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
By the way, I don’t mean to be that guy, but if 20% of the population has had COVID, where does that put the CFR in relationship to influenza?
Remember IFR /= CFR
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I suspect 83% would have us in herd immunity. But alas, blood donors are not a random sample.
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@george-k said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
@lufins-dad said in On the verge of herd immunity?:
20% have some immunity from previous infection? That’s twice the number of cases reported in the US.
I would assume there's a large cohort of asymptomatic infected.
Also, how many of those that received the shot also had previously been infected?
I know of at least one (D2)!
And some who were very ill, but not hospitalized, before the word COVID was on the front page news.
