The AI bubble is still ahead of us
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Fine print pasted below. Seems to me that exogenous macro stuff is the most likely cause of these things. If China does something to Taiwan it'll come true, but that has little to do with whether AI is bubbly. I wonder what portion of the credence given to this bubble burst is accounted for by factors beyond AI. With only 23% credence to account for, there may not be much credence left over to assign to value-based reasons for a bubble burst.
Not sure how to see when that prediction market opened, but I think it goes back to at least November 2025. The stocks in question have done extraordinary things in that time. If we do see this 50% pullback, many will still be up from their Nov '25 price. Not NVDA, but lots of others.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
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Looked it up and the ETF mentioned, SOXX, has gone from 270 to over 600 in the time that bet has been live.
So if someone bet on this bubble burst in polymarket when that bet opened, and at the same time shorted SOXX, and if this 40% drop occurs within the specified time, they will have won the polymarket bet, and yet their short will have lost money.
For the careful "yes" gamblers who placed bets when the bet opened, I assume they realized that if the "bubble" kept inflating, (as it has,) it's not necessarily bad for their bet, until they run out of time for the burst. "Sometime within the next 14 months, stock x will be 50% down from its all time high" is a very different proposition from "Sometime within the next 14 months, x will be down 50% from where it's at today".
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Gambling is the root of all evil they say. I got better things to do with the rest of my life than to psychoanalyze the future of gambling. Maybe that’s because I have a fucking pension ha ha ha ha when does a man feel enough is enough? So glad I am not afflicted with greed. Face it, none of you need it, but it takes up a big chunk of your life.
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Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
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Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
I would have bet the farm if I was a gambling man that one member of this form would be triggered and spew his vitriol here. Maybe I should take up gambling just for the fun of it.
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Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
I would have bet the farm if I was a gambling man that one member of this form would be triggered and spew his vitriol here. Maybe I should take up gambling just for the fun of it.
Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
I would have bet the farm if I was a gambling man that one member of this form would be triggered and spew his vitriol here. Maybe I should take up gambling just for the fun of it.
Well since you've threatened to kill me before, in one of your psychotic episodes that you probably don't even remember since you're now medicated, I have lifetime license to treat you like the abject piece of shit that you actually are. Enjoy, little man.
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Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
I would have bet the farm if I was a gambling man that one member of this form would be triggered and spew his vitriol here. Maybe I should take up gambling just for the fun of it.
Well since you've threatened to kill me before, in one of your psychotic episodes that you probably don't even remember since you're now medicated, I have lifetime license to treat you like the abject piece of shit that you actually are. Enjoy, little man.
Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
I would have bet the farm if I was a gambling man that one member of this form would be triggered and spew his vitriol here. Maybe I should take up gambling just for the fun of it.
Well since you've threatened to kill me before, in one of your psychotic episodes that you probably don't even remember since you're now medicated, I have lifetime license to treat you like the abject piece of shit that you actually are. Enjoy, little man.
And it is these kind of posts that must be quoted for posterity lest the originator reflect on its trollishness and simply remove it.
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Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
I would have bet the farm if I was a gambling man that one member of this form would be triggered and spew his vitriol here. Maybe I should take up gambling just for the fun of it.
Well since you've threatened to kill me before, in one of your psychotic episodes that you probably don't even remember since you're now medicated, I have lifetime license to treat you like the abject piece of shit that you actually are. Enjoy, little man.
And it is these kind of posts that must be quoted for posterity lest the originator reflect on its trollishness and simply remove it.
Look at the government pension teat suckler making fun of other people for being concerned about money. That's rich. But I have to hand it to you, it's a great scam to suck taxpayer dollars out of people you hate, from a country you hate.
I guess I could put my investment capital into T bills and forget about it for the rest of my life, and I'd still definitely be better off than you, but that would be no fun.
I would have bet the farm if I was a gambling man that one member of this form would be triggered and spew his vitriol here. Maybe I should take up gambling just for the fun of it.
Well since you've threatened to kill me before, in one of your psychotic episodes that you probably don't even remember since you're now medicated, I have lifetime license to treat you like the abject piece of shit that you actually are. Enjoy, little man.
And it is these kind of posts that must be quoted for posterity lest the originator reflect on its trollishness and simply remove it.
Yeah you do that.
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What Renauda is saying is he is offerring to be your Huckleberry
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